Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG

Company Name:	Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG
ISIN:	AT0000827209
Reason for the research:	Q4/25 Preview
from:	20.03.2026
Target price:	EUR 1
Target price on sight of:	12-months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Adrian Kowollik

Based on our discussions with Warimpex (WXF) management, we see no negative surprises in Q4/25 and consider our 2025E estimates to be conservative. The MOG31 residential project in Cracow is progressing as planned, with pre-sales having started in early January 2026. Apparently, >25% of all 145 apartments have already been reserved (according to mogilska31.pl, only 87 apartments are still available), which based on discussions with industry representatives we view as a good result. Average prices have also exceeded WXF management’s expectations. While the MOG31 project will be visible in WXF’s results only after completion (thus, on its P&L 2028E), pre-sales should bolster operating cash flow and secure debt repayment (30/09/2025: interest-bearing debt equalled EUR 148m). However, if the current war in Iran lasts longer than a few months, we see a risk that a resulting stagflation could negatively affect Warimpex’ business through higher interest rates and weaker demand for office space and hotel rooms. Given a lower peer-group-based FV and higher PLN-EUR rate, our 12-months SOTP-based PT (50% NPV of MOG31 + NNNAV, 50% peer group) goes down from EUR 1.02 to EUR 1 (current share price: EUR 0.49).

Our Q4/25 and full-year 2025 estimates remain unchanged For Q4/25E, we expect revenues of EUR 4.35m (-24.7% y-o-y following especially a weak Hotels segment), an EBITDA of EUR 110k (EUR 230k) and a net income of EUR -1.52m (EUR -42.1m, Q4/24 was impacted by the one-off from the Russian transaction). In 2025E, WXF’s revenues likely equalled EUR 19.1m  (-11.1% y-o-y), thereof EUR 13.5m (+2.4% y-o-y) from Investment Properties, EUR 1.3m (-42%) from Development/services and EUR 4.3m (-29.2%) from Hotels, which we believe in 2024 mainly reflected revenues from lodging of Ukrainian refugees. EBITDA likely amounted to EUR 1.15m (Investment Properties: EUR 5.8m, Hotels: EUR -300k, Development/services: EUR -4.4m, 2024: EUR 1.12m) and net income EUR -5.89m (EUR -84.8m).

Financing condition across WXF’s markets are currently improving, however a prolonged Iran war could negatively impact the company’s business In Poland, which accounts for >60% of WXF’s revenues and Gross Asset Value, the central bank is expected to lower rates by mid-2026E from 3.75% currently to 3.5%. While in Hungary they are expected to decline from 6.25% to 5.5-5.75%, in the Eurozone forecasts assume a stable rate of 2% this year. Nevertheless, we believe that an Iran war and elevated energy prices that last longer than 2-3 months could curb GDP growth, fuel inflation, and thus worsen business conditions for real estate companies.
 

You can download the research here: Warimpex_Update_20032026
For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/

Contact for questions:
Adrian Kowollik
Email: ak@eastvalueresearch.com
Tel.: +49 30 20609082