Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Pulse Survey Reveals Cautious Optimism Despite Short Term Volatility
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(Graphic: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)
- Bullishness pulled back. After a strong September, about 3 in 5 (59%) of investors remain bullish, down 2 percentage points from last quarter with the US election and geopolitical tensions looming.
- Inflation concerns eased. Inflation unease has decreased significantly from Q3—down 8 percentage points, while the 2024 election (34%) and market volatility (23%) maintained their positions as the second and third most concerning issues, respectively.
- Optimism for a “soft landing” increased. After the recent rate cuts, 64% of investors believe the Fed will be able to steer the economy into a “soft landing,” up 10 percentage points from last quarter.
- And investors feel good about the economy. Over 2 out of 3 (68%) feel the economy is healthy enough for additional cuts, up from 48% last quarter.
“It certainly feels like we’re at a bit of an inflection point with the Fed in rate cutting mode and investors remaining bullish,” said
The survey explored investor views on sector opportunities for the fourth quarter of 2024:
- IT – Amid tight supply-demand conditions and AI chip shortages, interest in IT dropped 3 percentage points to 54% but remained the top sector as it has all year.
- Energy – Despite weakness in the sector amid a dip in crude oil, investors remain bullish (43%) on energy.
- Health care – As the 2024 election looms, the defensive health care sector trended upward this quarter with 36% feeling opportunistic.
About the Survey
This wave of the survey was conducted from
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© 2024
Referenced Data
When it comes to the current market are you? |
||
|
Q3’24 |
Q4’24 |
Bullish |
61% |
59% |
Bearish |
39% |
41% |
Which of the following are you most concerned about when it comes to your portfolio? (Top 2) |
||
|
Q3’24 |
Q4’24 |
Inflation |
54% |
46% |
2024 election |
34% |
34% |
Market volatility |
22% |
23% |
A recession |
20% |
18% |
Geopolitical conflict |
12% |
16% |
Earnings |
14% |
14% |
Energy costs |
12% |
14% |
Fed monetary policy |
10% |
14% |
Jobs market |
N/A |
4% |
Narrow market driven by mega-caps |
3% |
2% |
None |
2% |
2% |
Please rate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements: |
||
|
Q3’24 |
Q4’24 |
Top 2 |
54% |
64% |
Strongly agree |
17% |
21% |
Somewhat agree |
37% |
43% |
Neither agree nor disagree |
28% |
24% |
Somewhat disagree |
14% |
8% |
Strongly disagree |
4% |
4% |
Bottom 2 |
18% |
12% |
Please rate how much you agree or disagree with the following statements. The |
||
|
Q3’24 |
Q4’24 |
Agree (Top 2) |
48% |
68% |
Strongly agree |
16% |
26% |
Somewhat agree |
32% |
42% |
Neither agree nor disagree |
26% |
17% |
Somewhat disagree |
18% |
11% |
Strongly disagree |
8% |
4% |
What industries do you think offer the most potential this quarter? (Top three) |
||
Q3’24 |
Q4’24 |
|
Information technology |
57% |
54% |
Energy |
47% |
43% |
Health care |
34% |
36% |
Utilities |
25% |
29% |
Financials |
28% |
28% |
Real estate |
29% |
27% |
Industrials |
20% |
22% |
Communication services |
19% |
19% |
Consumer staples |
19% |
18% |
Materials |
14% |
15% |
Consumer discretionary |
10% |
10% |
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241017848388/en/
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Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management