TotalEnergies SE: Fourth Quarter 2025: Main Indicators
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies’ (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) fourth quarter 2025 aggregates are shown below:
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Main indicators |
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|
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
2025 |
4Q24 |
2024 |
|
€/$ |
|
1.16 |
1.17 |
1.13 |
1.07 |
1.08 |
|
Brent |
($/b) |
63.7 |
69.1 |
69.1 |
74.7 |
80.8 |
|
Average liquids price * (1) |
($/b) |
61.4 |
66.5 |
66.2 |
71.8 |
77.1 |
|
Average gas price * (1) |
($/Mbtu) |
5.11 |
5.50 |
5.72 |
6.26 |
5.54 |
|
Average LNG price ** (1) |
($/Mbtu) |
8.48 |
8.91 |
9.14 |
10.37 |
9.80 |
|
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** |
($/t) |
85.7 |
63.0 |
53.4 |
25.9 |
39.5 |
|
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) *** |
($/b) |
11.4 |
8.4 |
7.1 |
3.4 |
5.3 |
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* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates. |
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** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates. |
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*** This market indicator for European refining, calculated based on public market prices ($/t and $/b), uses a basket of crudes, petroleum product yields and variable costs representative of the European refining system of |
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(1) Does not include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively. |
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Main elements impacting the fourth quarter aggregates
-
Once again, despite a year‑on‑year decline of more than
$10/b in oil prices, the cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive Upstream production growth and continued improvement of Downstream results in the fourth quarter. - Fourth‑quarter 2025 oil and gas production growth is expected to be at nearly 5% year‑on‑year, leading to close to 4% growth for the full year 2025, exceeding the guidance of more than 3%.
-
Exploration & Production results are expected to reflect the decrease in the average liquids and gas sales prices quarter to quarter, in line with published sensitivities. Year‑on‑year, Exploration & Production cash flow benefits from accretive production growth, limiting the impact of the decrease to around
$6/b out of the$11/b drop. -
Integrated LNG is expected to deliver a result and cash flow in line with the third quarter of 2025, supported by higher LNG production (end of turnaround at
Ichthys LNG ) and sales offsetting a 5% decrease in the average LNG price. -
Integrated Power cash flow is expected to increase, supported by the farm‑downs completed in the fourth quarter, enabling the segment to reach more than$2.5 billion in annual cash flow, in line with the full‑year guidance. - Refining & Chemicals results and cash flow are expected to increase strongly with the good operational performance of the units enabling the capture of the increase of more than 30% of the margins.
- Marketing & Services results and cash flow are expected to be broadly in line with the previous quarter.
-
Net investments for 2025 are expected to be close to
$17 billion , benefiting from more than$2 billion in divestments in the fourth quarter. -
A release of more than
$3 billion in working capital is anticipated over the quarter, leading to a gearing ratio which should be around 15% at year-end 2025.
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2025 Sensitivities* |
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Change |
Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income |
Estimated impact on cash flow from operations |
|
Dollar |
+/- 0.1 $ per € |
-/+ 0.1 B$ |
~0 B$ |
|
Average liquids price ** |
+/- 10 $/b |
+/- 2.3 B$ |
+/- 2.8 B$ |
|
European gas price – TTF |
+/- 2 $/Mbtu |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
|
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) |
+/- 1 $/b |
+/- 0.3 B$ |
+/- 0.4 B$ |
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* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2025. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals. |
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** In a 70-80 $/b Brent environment. |
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Unit change for the “European Refining Margin Indicator” (ERM)
From 4Q25 results, the “European Refining Margin Indicator” (ERM) will be reported in $/b to better reflect the integration of refining in the energy value chain. The basket of crude oils, product yields and variable costs representative of the refining system remains unchanged. The conversion factor is 7.5 b/t.
Corresponding 2025 data is provided below to reflect this change:
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|
|
4Q25 |
3Q25 |
2Q25 |
1Q25 |
4Q24 |
|
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) |
($/t) |
85.7 |
63.0 |
35.3 |
29.4 |
25.9 |
|
European Refining Margin Marker (ERM) |
($/b) |
11.4 |
8.4 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
Disclaimer
Unless otherwise stated, the terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of 2025 quarterly results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law,
This document may contain forward-looking statements (including forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and strategy of
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, technological innovations, meteorological conditions and events, as well as socio-demographic, economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Readers are cautioned not to consider forward-looking statements as accurate, but as an expression of the Company’s views only as of the date this document is published.
The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by
Additionally, the developments of climate change and other environmental-or social related issues in this document are based on various frameworks and the interests of various stakeholders which are subject to evolve independently of our will. Moreover, our disclosures on such issues, including disclosures on climate change and other environmental or social-related issues, may include information that is not necessarily "material" under US securities laws for
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of
Euro amounts presented for the fully adjusted-diluted earnings per share represent dollar amounts converted at the average euro-dollar (€-$) exchange rate for the applicable period and are not the result of financial statements prepared in euros.
Cautionary Note to US Investors – The
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